Matt Garza stock goes up or down?

The Matt Garza deal presents itself with some interesting ups and downs.  Remember, Garza got dealt to the Rangers, from the Cubs, for a number of younger players, most notably Mike Olt and Justin Grimm.  Let's take Garza's situation first.

Matt Garza has quietly turned in some quality numbers over his career.  After his first two years in Minnesota, where he posted WHIP's over 1.50 and an ERA over 5.00 his first year, he has settled in to a quality pitcher since he started pitching regularly in the rotations while in Tampa.  Between his time with the Rays and Cubs he has never had an ERA above 4.00 or a WHIP above 1.26.  Pretty impressive numbers.

Now some may be skiddish about his injury status and the he might be a little brittle.  His only time (albeit a lengthy one, I grant you) of any significant time on the DL was last year and the beginning of this year.  Otherwise he has been injury free.  The guy can flat out pitch, is what I'm saying.  In addition, I think the kid (he is only 29) is healthy and throwing great, as usual.

His numbers this year again indicate that he is a great pitcher.  With Texas, he is going to probably suffer from a little Ranger-itis, meaning his numbers might shoot up a little in two ways.  One he is going into a hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington.  The ball jumps there, but it does also when it gets warm at Wrigley Field.  I will say that in the cool weather of April and May, pitchers benefit from the winds coming off of the lake and blowing in.  However, when it gets warm, Wrigley turns much smaller.  Garza still has put up some impressive numbers overall with the Cubs.

His biggest uptick in numbers might be for the simple reason that he's playing in a league with a DH.  For any pitcher having to face 9 quality hitters vs. only 8 as in the National League is a difference over time.  Rangers or Cubs, I wouldn't hesitate to have him on my club.  Being with the Rangers will probably give him more of an opportunity to gather more wins, with Texas being a much better hitting club than the Cubs.

Really, I think it is a wash as to whether his stock goes up or down as a member of your fantasy league.  Whatever he might gain in wins (and wins are somewhat difficult to hang your hat on because of their unpredictability), he might give back a little in ERA and WHIP.  Garza's simply a good pitcher either way.  Don't get caught up too much in the hype that he went to Texas and that is going to shoot his stock up exponentially.