Fantasy Football - Pre-season is Over So Now What? Drop Tim Tebow!!

Ok, that's pretty obvious.  Tebow will make the Patriot's team in name only.  Apparently Coach B. loves his athleticism but not his QB skills.  Join the club.

Anyway, now is the time to get down to some business regarding preparing for drafts and the season. 

Here are some subtle pre-season finale notes:

NY Giants ("All Hail the New York Giants".....I love that line from the Madagascar movie....I've got two small kids, so cut me some slack here....)  RB Andre Brown suffered a fracture in his leg during last night's pre-season finale.  Although going in he was only going to be a 3rd down back, what this means is that David Wilson clearly wins here.  Wilson coming in was going to be the featured back but this further solidifies his role and increases his touches.  No longer will he coming off the field on goal line or third down situations.  So David Wilson moves up the charts.

Quinton Patten looks better and better.  Patton caught 2 passes for 52 yards last night and a TD.  He's the number 3 receiver on the 49er depth chart right now but has looked fantastic all camp.  There is a good bet he overtakes Marlon Moore sooner rather than later as the number two guy alongside Anquan Boldin.  The nice thing about Patten is he can play both on the perimeter and slot receiver positions well.  I like him a lot.

Montee Ball...didn't play, but that indicates to me that the Broncos are looking to save him for him for the opener.  They have seen enough and might be likely to put him in the mix more than some think.  Ronnie Hillman did play in the game last night, which tells me that they were still looking for some progress from him.  His chances also have been hurt by the fact that he has turned the ball over three times this pre-season.  Averaging almost one turnover per game is not going to get you much playing time.  Montee Ball might is a winner here too.

Good luck in your drafts!  Should be some interesting cuts come final roster time on Monday, as well.

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Fantasy Football - The Almighty Sleeper Pick - Floyd, Tompkins, Lacy

Sleepers.....under the radar....dark horses......

Every draft has them, whether real or fantasy.  We have talked about a few of them here, as well.  Let's throw a few more in the mix during this lead-up to the last pre-season weekend (thank goodness!! Enough with the exhibition games already....).

Let's start with some injury news.  Starting RB DuJuan Harris in Green Bay is gone for the season.  A patellar issue has him facing season ending surgery and a possible six month layoff.  No, he was not going to be seeing the ball 30 times a game, but the idea was to have him and Eddie Lacy be somewhat of a one-two punch in the Green Bay backfield.  Now that Harris is done for the year, that puts Lacy more in the limelight. 

I think because of Lacy's workload in Alabama and his many bumps and bruises there, his questions regarding conditioning (see early in camp photo bruhaha) and the pass-first offense of Mike McCarthy, Lacy was not at the top of a lot of draft lists.  Add in the fact that he wasn't the announced feature back and that watered down his appeal, as well.

Put the almost concluded pre-season under his belt, the fact that he has run hard, even if the numbers do not show it, and now Harris' injury and I think Lacy jumps up on those lists.  I think that offensive line still has to prove something, and Aaron Rodgers is still going to throw the football a lot, so don't get too giddy.

 Head coach Bruce Arians, now with the Arizona Cardinals, brings a more open offense with him.  In Indianapolis last year, he worked Andrew Luck to perfection, having him throw a lot.  In fact he was in the top five in attempts.  Switch to Arizona.  No, it's not Andrew Luck but Carson Palmer.  Certainly a better QB, however, than what the Cardinals ran out their last year. 

Given the offensive system that Arians runs, and better play at the QB position means the ball is going to be in the air more.  The beneficiary?  How about former 1st round pick Michael Floyd?  He's the number two guy there and also gets a great chance to get more one-on-one coverage with defenses focusing on Larry Fitzgerald. 

One other guy who has been rising up draft boards is Kenbrell Tompkins over in New England.  He's been targeted more times than any other receiver in camp.  He's putting up gaudy numbers for the pre-season.  He's a perimeter guy that just seems to be getting better and better.  I know pre-season can be a little misleading but this dude looks like he can be a real eye-popper for fantasy players.

 

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Fantasy Football - Where Does Russell Willson Fit?

With Sidney Rice out all pre-season and Percy Harvin out a while, as well, where does that put Russell Wilson on your draft list?  This Cat was the number Fantasy QB over the last five weeks of last season.  However, I think that is going to be the highlight of this guy's fantasy career until the 'Hawks develop more receiving talent.

In addition, this team is built to be a run first offense.  Marshawn Lynch is the go to back and is a top ten pick.  Backup RB Christine Michael turned in an outstanding performance against the Packers in the 3rd pre-season game on Friday night.  It's a deep backfield that some are calling the deepest in the league.  With all of that running might, including a talented Offensive Line, this team will continue to give the ball to Lynch and company limiting Wilson's numbers.

Counter that with the fact that I just don't see Wilson sneaking up on teams like he did last year.  Lots of defensive coordinators spent the entire off-season looking at tape on how to manage Wilson and the likes of Colin Kaepernick.  Even Green Bay's suspect defense (see my previous post on the Packers' 'D') got to Wilson a couple of times on Friday and limited his yards.  In addition he threw two picks.  He threw only ten interceptions last year.

I see Wilson coming down from the lofty status he was at the end of last season.  To Wilson's own admission, he is not going to run as much as he did last year.  He amassed 489 rushing yards last year and four TD's. 

Combine the facts that this is a run-first offense, their two top receivers are hurt, and Wilson probably will not run as much, limiting his rush numbers,  and you have the making of a guy who might be a little over-hyped come draft day.  The Seahawks are a team expected to be on the rise, with all that happened last year and with a renewed NFL coach given another chance in Pete Carroll.  Might be ripe for a little bit of a slip this year, and Wilson might be the one to take the biggest hit.

 

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Fantasy Football - Looking for Offense - How About Matt Schaub?

After you get past the primary set of offensive studs like Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Calvin Johnson and the like, it kinds a little challenging when you are drafting lower or simply need some bench guys to bolster your offense.

One place I might turn to would be the Houston Texans.  I have always like Matt Schaub.  The Texans are not a glamour team.  No Petyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers - They are not in New York or Dallas.  They kind of fly under the radar and so does Matt Schaub's numbers.  I've seen a number of prognosticators talk about him being a late rounder and how he really isn't the prize he once was. 

However, even though he doesn't put up numbers like Rodgers or Brees he has some potential to do some damage this year.  Consider the fact that he has one of the better WR's in the league in Andre Johnson.  Arian Foster also does a nice job catching the ball out of the backfield, in addition to his rushing skills.

Toss in an under rated TE in  Owen Daniels.  62 catches last year, with 6 TD's.  He was targeted 128 times.  He will be more of a factor this year, coming off of of a productive 2012 and a renewed sense of his worth in the offense.

In addition, first round draft pick, who I REALLY like, DeAndre Hopkins is going to attract more attention from opposing team defenses.  What does that tell you?  It means that Johnson and and Daniels don't get double teamed as much.  It means the ball gets spread around a little more.  It means some of these guys, who are talented, will get some one-on-one coverages that they will take advantage of during the year.  It means Schaub's numbers get even better.

It may also mean that guys like Hopkins and Daniels might be worth a look as well.  Now, Hopkins has suffered a concussion in week 1 of the pre-season.  He should be ready to go for week one.  I would give him a few games to get into the flow of things, before he will start to show why he was their first round pick.  He'll be a nice complement to Andre Johnson. 

All signs point to Schaub being ready to raise his level of play, as well.  His GM, Rick Smith, has indicated as much.  His QB coach, Karl Dorrell, has talked about his preparation going into the season and that he feels he is in the best shape both physically and mentally going into the 2103 campaign. 

This Texan's team is a good football team.  Many QB's, on the cusp of taking a team to the next level, elevate their play.  Could Schaub throw for 4500 yards and thirty TD's?  I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility.  Might be a little bit of a stretch, but, I'm just saying....he might not be a bad pick after that top tier is gone.

 

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Fantasy Baseball - Can You Trust Rookies like Xander Bogaerts and Tony Cingrani Down the Stretch?

Oh, we like youngsters....rookies....phenoms......  Those are the guys that are going to be the next Mike Trout, Adrian Peterson or LeBron James.  When the $&%# hits the fan, though, and games are played for keeps, can these guys actually help your fantasy team?

Take for example two highly touted young players in the Red Sox recent call-up Xander Bogaerts and Reds rookie pitcher Tony Cingrani.  Bogaerts has been lighting it up all year in double A and Triple A.  He gets his call with the Red Sox and is being snapped up like a trailer park in a tornado. 

I know in our league, there are at least a couple of guys who drool over prospects.  Conversely, there are a couple of guys who know that and have really taken some owners to the cleaners when making trades.  Some guys just go 'ga-ga' over highly touted prospects and will stop at nothing to have them on their team.  Bad move.

These guys are extremely volatile.  For every Mike Trout, there are ten Felix Pie's.  Who is Felix Pie, you ask?  My point exactly.  Highly touted farmhand out of the Cubs system, that never became more than the 26th guy on a 25 man roster. 

With September call-ups looming, some of you vying for a pennant may be looking to swoon in on a player here.  Be careful.  Some of these guys come up to get a handful of at bats or innings pitched and that is about it.  If you are looking for guys to give you numbers that can help you, make sure they are going to play a lot.  Some teams will really hand over a starting spot to a September call-up to see what they can actually do.  Most do not.  So, don't fall into the hype if you are really looking for numbers.

I had Edinson Volquez a few years back.  When he got his September call, they plugged him right into the rotation.  I needed some help in the pitching category so I grabbed him.  He gave me a nice month of numbers and I ended up winning my league. 

Regarding Bogaerts, he is a guy who is going to play a lot down through the last 6 weeks of the season.  But, don't be surprised if he sits, especially if he gets off to a lousy start (he went 0 for 3 with a whiff in his first game).  He can be a nice addition for you in the pennant drive or be just another drain on you batting average and not give you the numbers you want.  Just beware of that.

For a guy like Cingrani, who has been pitching for most of the year, the issue you have to worry about here is overuse and fatigue setting in to his pitching lines.  The rookie pitchers have never thrown well into September.  Their season stops about Labor Day, so as the innings start to pile up, you could be in for some bad starts, or some injuries.  Cingrani left Tuesday's start with a lower back issue.  Could it be a sign that he might be hitting the wall physically?

Highly touted rookies are great fodder for columns and hoopla, but be a little cautious as you approach these guys down the stretch.

Defense in Fantasy Football - What Teams Rise and What Teams Fall?

When you are looking for Defenses to target come draft day their might be some intriguing teams from which to choose.  Sometimes we get caught up in the 'name' teams that have a reputation and some 'street cred' to the fantasy world but looking a little deeper can yield some gems not found before.

Let's take example number one - Cleveland.  Now, the Browns, on the surface, have not inspired the fear of the Steel Curtain or the Fearsome Foursome, so they may be bypassed by some in your draft league basically because they do not have that wow factor associated with them. 

However, take the fact that they have a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton, who comes from Arizona.  With the Cardinals, he ran a 3-4 defense that 'got after it', to use a cliche.  He brings this mentality to a Browns defense that, quite frankly, is underrated.  It has more young talent here than folks give them credit for and will be great beneficiaries of the renewed, aggressive style play.

I think free agent signee and stand-up edge rusher Paul Kruger and inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson will put up some sack numbers that will start to get people's attention as the season progresses. 

I like this team creeping up on people, as a whole, but I really like their upside on defense.  Most have Cleveland in the second group of ten defenses, but I think they could easily crack the top ten.

The Buffalo Bills is another team on the opposite side of glitz street.  They were and up and down defensive team as it pertained to Fantasy football last year.  However, they too have added a new defensive coordinator who claims to play an attacking, aggressive style defense, as well.  Anything should be an upgrade over last year's squad. 

This was a volatile group last year, with them scoring in the negatives about as many times as they provided double digit points on defense.  With a new scheme giving players like linebacker Kiko Alonso,  an opportunity to shine, this could be an interesting defense.

I'm going to go the NFC North for two teams that I do not think will be as high as many folks think.  The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are two teams, that I have seen ranked fairly consistently in the top ten, or even top five. 

I just don't see it.  The Bears have a new defensive coordinator in Mel Tucker.  Known for his vanilla style defense, and the fact that I just do not see a lot of elite performers having the kind of years they had in the past is why I just am not as high on this defense.  Urlacher is gone, 'Peanut' Tillman and Julius Peppers are another year older and I'm not sold on their safeties Major Wright and Chris Conte. 

I think this is one where reputation goes a little farther in where they get picked.  I'm not saying they're heading to the bottom ten, but I just do not think they are a top five group.

With all of the defensive players that Ted Thompson has grabbed in the draft the last two years, you would think that, by default, this Packers defense should be an improved group.  I just don't see it.  Nick Perry, linebacker extraordinaire from USC, is coming off of surgery that had him miss most of last season.  Rookie first round pick Datone Jones has been hurt this pre-season, missing valuable development time and last year's rookie stalwart in the secondary, Casey Hayward, only made his 1st appearance in camp on Monday.

Throw in the fact that their defense is still feeling the hangover from their playoff debacle against the 49ers and I just don't think this defense is more than a middle of the pack group.  I've seen some draft prognosticators putting this group in the top ten.  I think that's a reach.  If it is, then all those cheese heads around the country will probably be in New York come Super Bowl, because that is where they will be if this team makes that big of a jump defensively.

Michael Vick and Josh Freeman - Under the Radar Stars or Over Hyped 'Stars'

The over hyped star label is probably more so in Michael Vick's case than in Josh Freeman's.  Vick has been a household name for a variety of reasons and for a number of years.  He has always had  'tremendous athlete' tag on him, even if he was not the most accurate passer.  Highly touted and praised his star status has had many ups and downs. 

Here is another crossroad for Vick as a professional football player.  I don't think there is much to the competition between he and Nick Foles.  If Vick is even decent as a passer this pre-season, he wins that job.  Barring an injury or simply some awful football, Vick is in as the Eagles top guy.  Now, that does not preclude him being benched at some point this year.  Vick's tendency over the years has been that his play has been very volatile.  He will look like a Hall of Famer for a game or two and then look like the starting QB for my nephew's sixth grade team.  As mentioned, he is not the most accurate passer either.

All that being said, he has had two nice pre-season games thus far, going 13 for 15 and showing some nice touch.  He is averaging a tremendous 13.3 yards per attempt vs. Foles'  7.1.  He's looked very calm, cool and comfortable in Chip Kelly's offense.  Yes, Vick has a lot of mileage on him and he's been in the league a very long time, so there is some merit to those who say that 2 pre-season games do not contradict ten years of games he has played in the NFL. 

However, he has not only a new coach, but a coach who brings something very different to an NFL offense.  Has Chip Kelly tapped into Vick's inner QB and allowed the all-powerful QB genie to finally reveal himself?  Well, I'm not sure about that, but signs are that Vick just feels very much at home in this offense and may just surprise some folks this season.

Josh Freeman never has been in this kind of a spotlight.  Known for flashes of brilliance, he just as easily has hit the skids.  He can be a maddening player for your fantasy team.  He almost brought the Bucs back to playoff land in 2010 with a brilliant season, throwing for 3451 yards and completing 61.4% of his passes.  Ladies and gentlemen, this was only three years ago.  So, the talent is there.  However, does this kid have the ability, or the team around him, to tap into what he brought to the NFL party just a few short years ago?

Right now, he is the Bucs only real option.  They will most likely not go to rookie Mike Glennon already, and Freeman is still young enough to turn things around and become more consistently good.  However, through two games this Bucs offense looks pathetic.  Granted, this last pre-season game they were playing without veteran guard Carl Nicks, but still the Patriots came calling on Freeman and the Tampa offense.  Freeman went a paltry 2 for 3 totaling 8 yards and 3 sacks.  Not exactly numbers that will get Freeman shooting up your draft list. 

In two pre-season games he is a very average 6 for 10 totaling 42 yards and four sacks.  I know the pre-season can be unbelievably misleading.  But, when this is what you have to go on, it sticks with you a little more.

I still like Freeman, but right now I like Vick a little more.  Stay tuned, there is one more meaningful pre-season game left to evaluate your guys as you get closer to draft day.