Jake Peavy Finally Dealt

I know in yesterday's post I was going to talk more about set-up guys.  With the trade deadline looming, I am going to put that thought on hold and comment on some of the deals going down.

The rumors surrounding Jake Peavy finally came to fruition with the three-way deal of him to the Red Sox.  Boston also dealt Jose Iglesias to the Tigers, presumably because they are feeling the heat of the Biogenesis affect and that, perhaps, Johnny Peralta ends up getting suspended.  Finally, the White Sox get young outfielder Avisail Garcia.

Peavy and Garcia are the two most intriguing guys in this deal to me.  The Red Sox add a quality starter and the White Sox add an interesting young player with some upside.  The youngster is only 22, with some power and speed.  If you have room on your fantasy roster, this is the guy I would try and jump on.  He has had a little bit of an issue with swinging at bad pitches and not being able to take many walks (where have we heard that issue before?), but if he can harness some of that, he could be a nice 5 category player for you.

Peavy should be Peavy with the Red Sox.  Obviously, he is playing with a better ballclub this year so he may tick off a couple of extra wins, but his other numbers should not be affected much.  That being said, we have seen where a player really gets rejuvenated when he gets traded to a team in contention.  With Peavy's history as a 'lights out' type pitcher don't be surprised if he, indeed, puts up some better numbers the rest of the way in Boston.  I do not think you can count on that, but it would not be out of the realm of possibility.

I have never been a big fan of Jose Iglesias.  I sometimes wondered about some of the hype surrounding his stature over the last few years.  He does not have much in the way of power and his average at the minor league level (.244 with on base percentage under .300) leaves much to be desired, as well.  Do not be fooled by his over .300 Avg. this year.  It is an anomaly.  He is simply some decent insurance for Detroit if Johnny Peralta gets the hammer from the PED's investigation.

We'll see what teams actually pull the trigger or which rumors were all smoke and mirrors.  Trade deadlines can be filled with a bunch of transactions, or they can be a bore fest, because of little activity.  We'll see.

Can Set-Up Pitchers Really Help?

The closer is the guy that gets all the glory....comes in the game in the 9th....mows down three straight hitters...strikes out the last guy to end the game with a flourish....his team wins and his fantasy owner - you - knocks down another one in the Save category.  Nice stuff.

What about the guy who has pitched in the 6th or 7th and held the lead, or gotten out of a bases-loaded jam when he came into the game?  How about the guy in the 8th, who kept the middle of the opposing lineup from doing any more damage?  Where's the love for these guys?

Well, thankfully, more and more fantasy leagues are including 'Holds' as part of their statistical categories.  Some, like the one I am in, still does not.  However, that does not preclude you from grabbing one, or possibly two of these guys and have them help your team.

One strategy I have always used with a nine pitcher squad (with no restrictions/limits/rules on how many starters or relievers you need to have - we simply have an innings minimum) is to have six starters, at least one and ideally, two, Save guys and at least one, if not two (if only one save guy)
Set-Up type guys.  Why? 

Even though our league doesn't use 'Holds' those guys are extremely useful in giving me solid ERA, WHIP and even Strikeouts.  Look at Octavio Dotel's career as an example.  In the years he wasn't the 'go to' save guy he still amassed a ton of strikeouts and minuscule ERA's and WHIP numbers.  How does 145 strikeouts in 105 innings grab you?  Or how about later in his career when he was with the White Sox, amassing 92 strikeouts in 67 innings?

My point is that there are guys out there, maybe not to the extreme of Dotel, that can give you some really solid numbers in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts that can certainly help your pitching categories.  When some of those categories are tight and a few points can mean the difference between winning and losing a fantasy league pennant, these guys can be extremely valuable.  Look at some of these guys to help out.

Tomorrow we'll look at some of the guys currently toiling in various bullpens that might be available in your league that can help, especially down the stretch.

Deadline Deals - How Do They Affect Your Fantasy Team?

We have already seen a number of deals this month involving teams playing for the future vs. teams looking to solidify their run for the pennant this year.  With a few days left before Wednesday's trading deadline, there still are lots of rumors running rampant.

There are two ways to look at deadline deals and how they affect your fantasy squad.  The most obvious is if your player is the one directly involved in the deal.  How does that player's new found team affect his playing time, statistics, etc.? 

For example, if you had recently dealt Matt Garza, you would be looking at how his trade to Texas affected his value.  Do you feel he went up or down or perhaps stayed pretty much the same?  In a case like Garza, I think his stock in wins may have jumped a little whereas he might take a small hit in ERA and WHIP since he is joining the American League.  From there you can assess what he means to your ball club.  If you were one of those teams playing for the future yourself, perhaps this solidifies his standing more and you are now able to deal him to a contender in your league.  If you are one of the lucky ones eyeing a fantasy league pennant, he becomes a more entrenched member of your rotation.

These are the easy ones to digest.  However, pennants are won and lost on seeing a little deeper into trades to get a sense of where some of the other players affected in the deal may end up on the roster.  When I say "affected", I mean both other guys involved in the deal as well as guys left on the respective rosters.

There is a ripple affect with any deal.  Closers and set-up guys is where you see some of the most immediate impacts.  Kevin Gregg is being rumored to be another one of the guys Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer discard in this month of rebuilding that has happened on the north side of Chicago.  Not only do you want to look at Gregg's worth with his new team, but also what happens to guys that are setting up for him?  Strop, Parker and Jeff Russell would all be in the mix possibly for saves at that point.  Especially if you are playing for next year, you may want to take a flyer on one of those guys anticipating a possible deal.

I have been able to grab some of the guys that suddenly have new found roles and more playing time as a result of deals.  Not the guys directly involved but the guys left behind.  Many times these are the guys that go unnoticed (or not as highlighted) that you can grab that can be a solid guy in your lineup for the next year and beyond.

If your league allows for in season minor league pickups, this process can get even more intriguing.  Taking a chance on a minor leaguer who's new team has an upgraded future role, can have a have impact in how you look at some of these deals, as well.

Do look at these trades on the surface to see how the main players get affected based on their new environments, but pay special attention to the guys left behind.  Those are the spots where you can find some gems left behind that can help your team, not only the rest of the year but into next, as well.

Players Under the Radar That Can Help Your Fantasy Team

The second half of the baseball season is well underway.  Some of us fantasy geeks are looking for players to either get us over the top or to grab for next year.  Hear are a couple of guys that can help in either category.

Devin Mesoraco was a highly touted prospect in the Reds organization, putting up some nice power numbers that were to translate nicely to the Great American Ballpark.  His first full year last year was less than anticipated, as he hit only .212 in his first extended action.  He did hit five homers but was still considered a disappointment. 

This year started off up and down.  He started the season in a back-up role to Ryan Hanigan.  In the small snippets of playing time he showed some signs of life but was still too inconsistent to be relied on.  However, the kid is only 25 and is only in his 2nd full year in the bigs, so he still has some ability that hasn't come out yet, or has it?  His latest hitting surge has come at the expense of Hanigan, who is serving some time on the DL.  In a seven game stretch from the 14th thru the 23rd, he's gone 10 for 22 with 2 homers and 6 RBI.  His back was an issue a few weeks ago.  If he's healed and has started to tap into his potential, he could be a nice pickup for not only the last couple of months but as a nice fixture behind the plate.

Carlos Torres is another guy you might want to take a look at, at least down the stretch.  He is now in the starting rotation for the New York Mets, taking the place of a hugely disappointing Shaun Marcum.  In his stead Torres has put up some impressive numbers, like a microscopic 0.94 ERA, a 26/4 K/BB ratio in only 28 2/3 innings and a 1.01 WHIP.  He pitched well out of the bullpen for the Mets since his recall in mid-June and Terry Collins has plugged him in to the rotation with some monstrous results.

His first full year in the majors was last year with the Rockies, where he failed to impress.  However, he seems to have found some life in New York under pitching coach Dan Warthen.  His strikeout to walk numbers are what jumps out at me.  Those numbers show that he has some swing and miss stuff.  Terry Collins calls him a 'strik throwing machine.'  That also tells me has the confidence of his manager, as well.  He's another that can help down the stretch and he's only 30.  That, to me, although not a 22 year old flame throwing phenom, is still not old as it relates to pitchers.

I know this time of year you are looking for big guns that can help propel you over the top in your league, or you are looking for guys that you can build on for next year.  These two guys might serve a purpose for you no matter which side of that fence that you're on right now.  And these guys are probably sitting on your league's waiver wire or can be had for cheap in a trade. 

Matt Garza stock goes up or down?

The Matt Garza deal presents itself with some interesting ups and downs.  Remember, Garza got dealt to the Rangers, from the Cubs, for a number of younger players, most notably Mike Olt and Justin Grimm.  Let's take Garza's situation first.

Matt Garza has quietly turned in some quality numbers over his career.  After his first two years in Minnesota, where he posted WHIP's over 1.50 and an ERA over 5.00 his first year, he has settled in to a quality pitcher since he started pitching regularly in the rotations while in Tampa.  Between his time with the Rays and Cubs he has never had an ERA above 4.00 or a WHIP above 1.26.  Pretty impressive numbers.

Now some may be skiddish about his injury status and the he might be a little brittle.  His only time (albeit a lengthy one, I grant you) of any significant time on the DL was last year and the beginning of this year.  Otherwise he has been injury free.  The guy can flat out pitch, is what I'm saying.  In addition, I think the kid (he is only 29) is healthy and throwing great, as usual.

His numbers this year again indicate that he is a great pitcher.  With Texas, he is going to probably suffer from a little Ranger-itis, meaning his numbers might shoot up a little in two ways.  One he is going into a hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington.  The ball jumps there, but it does also when it gets warm at Wrigley Field.  I will say that in the cool weather of April and May, pitchers benefit from the winds coming off of the lake and blowing in.  However, when it gets warm, Wrigley turns much smaller.  Garza still has put up some impressive numbers overall with the Cubs.

His biggest uptick in numbers might be for the simple reason that he's playing in a league with a DH.  For any pitcher having to face 9 quality hitters vs. only 8 as in the National League is a difference over time.  Rangers or Cubs, I wouldn't hesitate to have him on my club.  Being with the Rangers will probably give him more of an opportunity to gather more wins, with Texas being a much better hitting club than the Cubs.

Really, I think it is a wash as to whether his stock goes up or down as a member of your fantasy league.  Whatever he might gain in wins (and wins are somewhat difficult to hang your hat on because of their unpredictability), he might give back a little in ERA and WHIP.  Garza's simply a good pitcher either way.  Don't get caught up too much in the hype that he went to Texas and that is going to shoot his stock up exponentially.

Baseball Part 2 - Let the Games Begin....Again!

I have to admit it.  I go through stat withdrawal over the All-Star break.  I love the game.  All the nuances, underpinnings, side stories, and strategies, but I still love to dive into box scores.  Whether it a physical newspaper I thumb through or scrolling down the page of a website, boxscores are KING for me. 

With an added twist that I started 25 years ago by beginning my own fantasy baseball league, those boxscores mean even more to me now.  They are looked at in a little different way then simply seeing who went three-for-four.

There are a lot of intriguing story lines for the 2nd half.  Can Miguel Cabrera be the first player in history to win the the Triple Crown two years in a row?  Can Chris Davis keep his unbelievable numbers?  Can Max Scherzer continue to mow down hitters like he's a video game pitcher?  Can the lowly, small market, proud franchise known as the Pittsburgh Pirates actually stay above .500, let alone really (I mean really...) make the playoffs?

Players will be dealt.  Players will get hot.  Players will take a nose dive.  There will unbelievable finishes and heartbreak defeats.  I can't wait....

Let the games begin...again!

2nd Half Strategies - Look Closely at the Numbers

Are you looking for ideas to pick up points in your Fantasy Baseball league?  Do any of these examples look familiar?

You have had your eye on that starting pitcher on the last place team in your league all year.  This might be the time to try and make that deal for him because you desperately need help in pitching. 

Or how about this scenario - You are struggling in runs, so you are going to try and go after a couple of leadoff type guys rotting on your opponents' teams at the bottom of the standings.  Offer them something decent and - voila! - you have yourself some significant points in the 'Runs' category.

Not so fast.  One thing a lot of guys do when making deals they think will help them is simply not look at the numbers close enough.  Not only numbers for the individual players you want but the numbers that tell the tale of where you are in the standings, as well.

First off let's look at the players.  For players you want, take a closer look at their recent trends.  Using the pitching example, try and look to see what their numbers have been over their last four or five starts.  If they started out well, but have been knocked around lately, that might be a red flag.  Is there an injury lurking that no one knows about?  Have they started to come back to reality? 

Remember, especially for pitchers, those early season numbers can be decieving.  They pitched a fair amount of starts in cold weather, which is an advantage.  One that I've used many times.  I've taken a decent pitcher, have him pitch well in the month of April and a little in May.  Ride that high to a trade.  Once the warm weather hits, the balls start flying a little more and those low E.R.A.'s and WHIP start to rise.

Look at players who started slow but who are on the rise.  Their overall numbers might be down, but perhaps they have started to find their groove.  These guys can sometimes be had for a cheaper price.  Eric Hosmer and Josh Hamilton are two examples of this.  So, instead of overpaying for a guy with gawdy numbers that may slow down in the 2nd half, try and take a closer look at some guys trending upward.

Lastly, look at the numbers in the standings.  Yes, you may need some pitching points, but where, exactly can you gain?  If you are light years away from gaining some meaningful points in E.R.A. and WHIP, then I might look in another direction.  For example, saves can be a category that you can gather points in rather quickly.  You might have guys at the very top running away with the category, but chances are this category is bunched up enought that picking up another save guy can gain you valuable points.

Also, look closely at each category and see how far behind you are from guys above you.  Looking closer can give you more insight into whether you can gain a bunch of points or not.  The HR category is really bunched up in our league.  Just the addition of one big power guy can add another 4 points.  However, ERA and WHIP are spread out.  Someone is not going to be able to pick up many points here.

Look at the numbers to make better decisions on what you need and who to try and go after.

Hate the Yankees? Ya' still have to love Mo'

The New York Yankees are one of those polarizing elements in sports.  You either love them or hate them.  There probably are a few other teams littered through pro and college sports that bring strong emotions on one side or another.  I think the Yankees have been in that class for a long time.  That's what winning regularly does.

But if you are simply a baseball.  Just enjoying the game for what it is, you were doing what I did Tuesday night.  That is you simplly wanted to watch the game.  Get a glimpse of your favorite players or guys you don't get to see very often and have fun.  Maybe share it with other friends, and family members (like my three old).  Even if you absolutely hate the Yankees, you have to have loved the Mariano Rivera moment in the game.

I truly believed that I was fortunate to be a part of one of those historical moments in sports.  Much to my wife's disdain, I toss that phrase around perhaps a little too much - "historical moment" - when watching a sporting event (and trying to entice her to join me - "This is history in the making" - and then I watch her eyes roll).  But seeing Rivera come in from the bullpen, the applause getting louder and louder as he jogged in, people starting to stand.  Then, by the time he gets to the mound, he sees players from both dugouts jumping out over the fence and in front standing and clapping.  I don't care what team you love or hate, if you simply love great moments in sports, that was it. 

Here was the greatest relieve in the history of the game, being almost drawn to tears in front of a packed crowd and national television audience.  He was that moved.  A great moment for a great player.  Not sure I agreed with him winning the MVP, but it still was a time capturing snaphsot that will be replayed thousands of times.

Love the Yanks or hate 'em.  You still gotta love Mo'.

All-Star Break Trading - When to pull the plug

So, you find yourself in 6th place in your fantasy baseball league.  A little out of the top five payout spots but still far enough away from the bottom that you still feel that you might be 'in it.'  That's the hardest place to be when deciding on whether to start dealing for younger, cheaper talent to hold on to for next year or to try and trade those elements away to try and make a run yourself.

Obviously, this is only relevant for keeper leagues.  If you are playing in a one year and start over type league, I feel sorry for you (did I say that out loud?).  Really, play like you mean it and actually get yourself into a keeper league:)  It is much more fun and provides for a lot more intrigue whether you are toward the top or at the bottom.

I have been playing in a keeper league for over twenty years.  Each year is something different.  I've won and I've also been toward the bottom where I work the trade wires similar to what the Cubs, Phillies, Brewers and the other second division teams are starting to do.  Play for next year.  In a keeper league there is always something that will make the season interesting.

Off of the 'keeper league' soapbox, the hardest position to be at is when you are around the top.  Some folks feel that anything less than a title is not enough so even if they feel they can finish in the top 3 or top five, it does not matter.  They are dealing.  We have a couple of guys in our league like that.  If they know the top is probably out of the question for themselves this year, they are hitting the trade route.  Others in that category will make a few deals but still work the waiver wire and free agent pool to grab a guy or two that can propel them into the top group, even if it means not winning it.

It's all in your perspective.  I am actually in that boat right now.  I am in sixth place and we pay out the top five.  It's not so much the prize money as it is the pride of finishing 'in the money'.  One of our guys keeps track of that stuff historically and prints an update each off-season.  I have to admit that it is nice to see my team name mentioned more than others when it comes to finishing in the top five.

However, there have been years where it is so disappointing to finish fourth as opposed to winning it that I have dealt guys left and right even though I was toward the top.  Again, assess what your thoughts were going into the season.  How has that changed now at the All-Star break?  What do you want to accomplish for the rest of the year?  How badly do you want to beat out some guys?  All these questions, and probably more, come into play in deciding whether to play for next year or keep moving forward with this one.

The All-Star break always brings a sense of withdrawal, since there are no stats to look at for a few days.  However, it can be a time to reflect and honestly ask yourself where you want to go from here. 

Looking for Starting Pitching? Chris Carpenter is on the way back.

It's July and you are still in the hunt for the top spot (or playoff spot if your fantasy league uses them) of your league.  However, you can use some starting pitching.  The waiver list might be a little dry right now with most decent pitchers already gone and any young phenom probably swallowed up by now, as well.

Well there might be a little hope on the horizon with the news that former Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter will start a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield on Monday.

It's hard to try and gauge what you might expect from Carpenter.  He has battled back from serious arm injuries in the past.  Not only has he battled back but he's excelled when he has come back, for the most part.  This time he is coming back from various neck, arm and shoulder issues.

He most likely will have a spot available to him in the starting rotation.  Their front four of Wainwright, Miller, Lynn and Westbrook have been superb.  However, Jaimie Garcia (my guy!) is out for the season and they have had a few guys in and out of the fifth spot, including highly touted prospect Michael Wacha.

Consider Carpenter's history of coming back from injury, here.  Also, look at the reputation of the Cardinal organization.  Both should not be overlooked.  Carpenter has come back before rather solidly.  The Cardinals seem to know what they're doing and are considered one of the top organizations in the game.  I know Carpenter is 38 and these are not tweaked ankles or a blister which he is trying to overcome, but..... 

Out of all of the pitching candidates coming back from injury, Carpenter might be one guy I would definitely monitor as he gets closer to his return.  He just might be a player that can put you over the top down the stretch.

Cubs Begin To Deal

With the discarding of Scott Feldman, Carlos Marmol and Scott Hairston, the Cubs have begun their second trade deadline dealing under the auspices of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. 

The dealing of Feldman to the Orioles has brought in two former fairly highly touted arms in Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta, to the Cubs.  They continue to stockpile former high tiered young arms in addition to adding to their international bonus money and slots, which they may max out or exceed at this point.

With Alfonso Soriano starting to heat up, his name has bounced around various rumor mills, but still remains a tough sell.  With his contract, the Cubs would have to pick up a big chunk of money to make any deal work.  Still, with the Jed and Theo show at work, if they feel that a quality return would help then they may pull the trigger on a deal even with the idea of the club swallowing most of his contract.

It is interesting to note also that since the deals started flowing the Cubs have entered in to a mini upswing, finishing off the Angels last night to record their fourth consecutive victory.  Newly acquired Strop finished off the game be recording a pair of strikeouts.  Something that I need in my Fantasy League as I continue to slide in a number of categories.

Yea, I picked up Strop thinking that he may still have some upside left as a closer.  Kevin Gregg, I believe, is simply lightning in a bottle and the bottle may break at any time.  For Cub fans, they hope his bubble bursts after he is dealt to a contender.  With his effectiveness as a closer, he has become another intriguing player the Cubs can use to deal for another young arm.  When he hits the bricks of another town, Strop may very well take over the closer role. 

Arrieta and Strop are the onlly guys in these deals so far that can help in the immediate future.  Even though Arrieta is down at Iowa, if he shows any sense of upside, they are sure to call him up.  His strikeout ratio (8.6 per nine innings last year) shows that he has some tremendous stuff.  It's up to the Cubs to see if they can turn him into anything positive.  The Rangers and Orioles were not successful to this point.

Matt Garza is still the biggest chip in the Cub's trade arsenal.  It will be interesting to see what the Cubs end up doing, as there are rumors that they might just want to sign him now instead of deal him.  More to come I'm sure. If your fantasy league allows for you pick up guys like Strop and Arrieta and stash them, it might be worth a flyer on either one.